In September we increased our database of football statistics and historical bookmaker odds to include 111 leagues. Over the past weeks many users have updated and re-shared their strategies. They have applied their existing strategy settings to the new leagues and the latest data. Which strategies have been updated? This article will showcase some of the major strategies to have been updated.
Firstly, why are updated strategies a good thing? There are 4 important reasons why the updated strategies are worth paying attention to.
More leagues mean the trends that the core settings follow can be checked against a larger data set. More data gives more evidence to support the profitable betting strategies being followed.The new league database includes a lot more minor leagues. It is harder for bookmakers to get their odds right and much easier to find inefficiencies in the market models when there is less information available for those markets. Since there is often less public interest in minor leagues, any efficiencies that do exist last longer than those that are quickly backed away by a popular market with many punters having their eyes on them. This does not mean that it isn’t possible to make profit from major leagues, just that there is a lot of logic to suggest that minor leagues have less data and market pressure for the bookmakers to make accurate models with.Some of the top performing strategies were created more than 12 months ago. A lot of football has been played since then. The new strategies re-make their league choices based on the latest data. That may mean some leagues are dropped and some are added.If the betting trends that worked for 54 leagues also work for 111 leagues, then it is a really positive sign that the strategy settings have found a significant hole in the bookmaker armour.
In this article, we will list all the strategies we are aware have been updated or newly created with the expanded database of 111 leagues. Some of them have been updated by the user who created them and some of them have been updated by other users and given new names. We have done our best to make a list where it is easy to see the original and updated strategies. Also, we will highlight a few of the updated strategies and compare their results to their original versions to see if there have been improved results or not.
List of Top Original and Updated Strategies
Highlighting Top Strategies
1 No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams (Updated 2021-11-15) All 111 leagues Originally By User Maxi
This long running top strategy, originally by veteran user Maxi, has achieved an amazing Betaminic rating of 100 on multiple occasions. It seems to have found a very good value trend in the bookmaker odds. The updated version finds that this strategy works across all 111 leagues. That is a truly global trend which is valid in all the league models. The monthly picks increase from 15 to 20 with the new version and the average odds stay exactly the same at 3.33 showing a consistency between the old and new version. The yields and max drawdown also stay about the same. The really good news is that the average profit of this existing strategy has been increased thanks to the expanded database. This looks like a really good strategy to follow, and it seems that 5 users are already betting on it. User Maxi has a number of successful strategies shared on the public strategies page, we think it is worth taking a look at his strategies since they are often based on good core betting ideas.
There are only 8 bets in the since shared period for the updated strategy, but already it is in profit and will hopefully go on to mirror the upward progression of the original strategy.
2 Not home on. (Updated 2021-11-15) 93 of 111 leagues Originally By User Adebola
This strategy from user Adebola has had very good results. This strategy looks for underdog home teams with poor recent home form playing against an average away team. It has been updated in 2 ways. Not home on. (Updated 2021-11-15) 93 of 111 leagues uses exactly the same settings as the original but removes leagues with negative results and 50+ results in that league’s data set. This leaves it covering 93 of the 111 leagues which is showing a fairly universal trend. If no leagues were filtered, these settings actually get a very large 5.9% yield. That is across ALL leagues. This shows a really strong and universal trend. But applied to all leagues the drawdown increases to -122 points. So filtering out leagues where the bookmaker model maker has actively overcompensated in can bring the historical max drawdown down to a more acceptable -66 for the Not home on. (Updated 2021-11-15) 93 of 111 leagues version. One more alternative update is Home Dog vs Average Away 54 of 111 leagues +4% yields which filters out leagues with yields of less than 4%. This reduces the number of leagues covered to just 54, but still a significant number of leagues. This version gets the maximum drawdown to -28.76.
Home Dog vs Average Away 54 of 111 leagues +4% yields was shared on September 24th, while Not home on. (Updated 2021-11-15) 93 of 111 leagues was shared on November 15th, so it has less results in its since shared period. Both versions of the updated strategy are showing good early results, the former with a very strong +18% yield after 92 bets, and the latter with +12% after 16 bets, still very early days there.
3 Contend UD by User Misbe91 (Updated 2021-11-29) 86 of 111 leagues (Overall Filter) Originally By User Misbe91
This is one of a number of strategies that follow a similar theme of looking for unfancied home teams. It looks for teams who have not won for a long while at home or away. Their odds are unfancied and often become value as the market backs the draw/away team result. I mean, would you back a team that had not won a match in so long? Football is not like a roulette wheel. Each game is not an unconnected, isolated event. (See our Gambler’s fallacy article for more on this.) Eventually the home team will get its win, most likely at home, and the odds for that home win will be good value when it comes. The original strategy filters home teams that have not won home or away (overall) for a long while, but there are 2 updated versions. One that uses the exact same “overall” filter and a second that looks for home teams that have not won for a while “at home”. Impressively, both versions work over all leagues to generate a significant yield of 3.4% for the home only version and 3.8% for the overall version. This really shows how betting against the trend can beat the entire market. (Public sharing requirements specify a yield of 5% or higher is necessary, so both of these strategies have been edited to filter out leagues with negative results that also have 50 or more bets in their data set. If you want to follow an All Leagues version of these strategies, you can re-create them in your private strategies area.) The Overall filter version has more picks and more average profit per month than the Home filter only version.
There are only 9 bets in the Since Shared results for the Home filter version, but already it is showing positive results.
List of new strategies created with expanded 111 league database
Bet TypeNew StrategyCore IdeaDrawDraw Due All 111 leaguesThis strategy makes 8% ROI across ALL leagues. This is a strong global trend. It looks for games where a draw is due after long drawless runs and when the Over 2.5 goal odds are near evens suggesting a 1-1 is likely. The draw odds themselves are narrowed to likely draw bands to avoid games where there is a strong favourite (higher draw odds).DrawDraw-Prone Home Team – All LeaguesThe draw-prone local team in some matches without a clear advantage over the visitors.DrawWeak Home Unders Draw All 111 leaguesThe home team is not a strong favourite and few goals are expected. A draw is very possible.DrawAverage vs Average – All LeaguesTaking advantage of the draws between two mid-table teams.DrawAway Dog Draw 38 of 111 leagues 4%+ leaguesThe away dog odds are not so high as to suggest their task is impossible. The over 2.5 goals market suggests goals and if there are goals in the game, then it is likely both teams have scoring form and the away team is in with a chance.DrawDog Draw 19 of 111 leagues 4%+ yieldsWhen the underdog is not too highly priced we can imagine it is in with a fighting chance and there could be a draw.DrawThey like draws (Updated 2021-11-10)Strategy for the draw. Last games of both teams scoring, and look for change of trend, with few goals and draws.DrawTwo Bulls Draw 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yieldsTwo strong teams meet and a draw is highly likely.DrawWeak Home Unders Draw 46 of 111 leagues 4%+ yieldsThe home team is not a strong favourite and few goals are expected. A draw is very possible.DrawWeak team drawing at home 48 of 111 leagues 4%+ yieldsHome team does not win that many and is likely to draw at home when not favourite but odds also not too high so still expected to have a chance. Score draw expected here. Leagues with 4%+ yields selectedHomeHomeHome wins after loss streakHomeHome team good formBacking home teams that won 8 out of their last 10 at home.Home Home Win springing a surpriseBacking the home underdog with unbeaten recent form against an away team with recent unbeaten overall from.HomeHome Win two consecutive wins at home (Updated 2021-10-26)Backing the home team to get a 3rd home win from 3 against a decent away side.HomeHOME WIN WITH HIGH ODDS.Backing home wins with odds over 4.HomeMassive Bets for WinBack home teams that have not won in a while. (No odds filters)HomeThe rocket strategy (Updated 2021-11-07)Back the home team after draw(s) against an away team with recent win(s).HomeWeak home wins or loses 27 of 111 leagues 2.5%+ yieldsHome teams who have not drawn more than 5 of their last 10 games overall with odds over evens up to slight underdogs and goals expected in the game. Leagues over 2.5% yield selectedHomeWinless Home Dog with a chance 59 of 111 leagues with positive yieldsThe home team has not won in the last 5 games at home, but they did win the 6th home game before this., and their match odds are under 5 so the market also thinks they have a chance in this match. These leagues were filtered to those with yields over 0%AwayHighstakes – Away team winsBack the weak away favourite when the home team has not been on a long home winning streak recently.AwayReverse streak of away teamReverse streak of away team. Finding winning pattern of value odds.FavouriteFavorite team all inBacking the strong favourite when both teams won their last game(s) (55 of 11 leagues used)UnderdogViriato Natural PushingBack the away underdog when both teams have poor recent form.UnderdogViriato Natural Pushing V2Back the away underdog when both teams have poor recent form. With different league selection method. 1. Ú5 2P CF / 2. Ú10 6P CFUnderdogbrave top clubBacking high odds underdogs.UnderdogNO FAV ODDS 3 – 8Back the underdog in a game between two poor form teams.UnderdogUNDERDOG HIGH ODDSBack underdogs with high odds over 7.UnderdogUnderdog home teamBetting on underdog at home, odds between 3.00 and 5.00UnderdogUnderdog, it’s your turn now!Back the underdog when neither team has won in the last 3 home/away games respectively.1XDC Home WIn / DrawBack the 1X for home teams with good long term form but poor short term form.1Xdouble chance mise a jourBack the home 1X for a team with decent long term form but poor short term form. (16 of 111 leagues used)1XWeak team drawing at home 24 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields (DC1X)Double Chance version of the weak team drawing at home value trend1XWinning pattern 1XBack the 1X when two strong teams meet and goals are expected.DC1XHome win or draw (away team good run)Backs the 1X against a strong away team.DC1XHome win or draw (away team good run) v2Backs the 1X against a strong away team in games with few goals expected.Away DNBEquipo Visitante No FavAverage home vs poor awayAway DNBEquipo Visitante No Fav (filtro cuotas)Poor away in a game where both teams lost their last game(s) and goals are expected.Away DNBSolid as a rockBack the away DNB when both teams have not won recently.Away DNBSolid as a rock lower odds versionBack the away DNB when both teams have not won recently, but limit the DNB odds to near evens or less.Away DNBAway Draw No Bet (Updated 2021-10-26)Betting on the away victory, covering the draw, looking to break the good run of the home team. Searching odds value in the Draw No Bet MarketAway DNBAway Win DNB against favAway Win DNB where away team is the underdogAway DNBAway Win DNB goals expectedAway Win DNB where away team is the underdog and goals expectedAway DNBAway Win DNB strategy by benhur (Version 18.10.2021)Away Win DNB strategy high odds dnb low odds for over 2.5.Home DNBDNB Local UnderdogBack the home underdog with a DNB bet.Home DNBHome Win (DNB) smooth strategyBacking games with goals expected but both teams having drawn game(s) recently.Home DNBLong-term ProfitBack a weak home team in a game with few expected goals.Over 2.5 goalsFunger Over 2,5 – 1Back overs when the home team is favourite and both teams had recent unders form.Over 2.5 goalsGoals are my passionFind value bets when both teams are not on a good run of consecutive games scoring.Over 2.5 goals” Over 2.5 change in expected goals trend”Back overs when both teams have only had 1 overs game in their past 5. (36 of 111 leagues used)Under 2.5 goalsTW Under 2.5 Goals Against the Trend 101 of 111 leaguesThis strategy is inspired by a simple reverse of the Betaminic Against the trend Over 2.5 goals strategy. It looks for matches with a home team that has a seasonal trend of unders matches and a short term trend of overs matches for both the home and away team. The short term form drives up the price of the unders bet to value levels.Under 2.5 goalsFunger Under 2,5 – 1Back unders when the home team has not won in a while and the away team won their last game(s).Under 2.5 goalsU2.5 draw oddsU2.5 strategy filtered by draw odds Back unders when both teams have not scored recently and the match is expected to be unders and the draw odds are low.Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 systemTwo average teams play each other in an overs expected game. A tighter than usual game can happen.Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 teams strong defenseBack unders when both teams have not conceded recently.
Highlighting New Strategies
These 3 new strategies are worth highlighting because they work across all of the 111 leagues in the new enlarged database. Strategies that work across all leagues with no filtering reduce the risk that we have just data mined our way to green numbers. This can give us a lot of confidence to consider such strategies.
1 TW Under 2.5 Goals Against the Trend 101 of 111 leagues
This is a very interesting new strategy that is inspired by a simple reverse of the Betaminic Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-21) strategy. It looks for matches with a home team that has a seasonal trend of unders matches and a short term trend of overs matches for both the home and away team. The short term form drives up the price of the unders bet to value levels. The shared version uses 101 leagues with negative yielding leagues with 50+ bets in their data set removed. This gives a yield of +5.58% and a low maximum drawdown of -23 points. If no leagues were filtered, it would still have a positive yield of +2.72% and a maximum drawdown of -35 points. It makes this a very interesting strategy to follow since both the Over and Under 2.5 goal Against The Trend strategies could be followed together with no overlap.
2 Draw Due All 111 leagues
This strategy makes 8% ROI across ALL leagues. This is a strong global trend. It looks for games where a draw is due after long drawless runs and when the Over 2.5 goal odds are near evens suggesting a 1-1 is likely. The draw odds themselves are narrowed to likely draw bands to avoid games where there is a strong favourite (higher draw odds). The settings are similar to and inspired by the Golden6.6 – Draws are in late 2.0 & Draws are in late – All Leagues strategies by Maxi, but have slightly different settings. The fact these 3 strategies all find the same trend suggests that this kind of strategy is worth considering. Since they back games that have not had draws recently, we could also view these as a kind of Against the Trend style.
3 Weak Home Unders Draw All 111 leagues
This strategy looks for fixtures where the home team is not a strong favourite and few goals are expected. A draw is very possible. These settings work across all the leagues and generated a +6% yield historically. Again, the fact that it works across all leagues suggests it is worth considering. The maximum drawdown of -71 points is the only worry here.
Since Shared Results
Weak Home Unders Draw All 111 leagues has already had 120 bets since it was shared on September 24th, and it has maintained the 6% yield that its historical results suggested. The other two new strategies still do not have enough data to be meaningful but their early bets are already in the green.
List of Original and Updated Strategies where the updated strategy already has a higher rating than the original
(* indicates updated strategy is doing better than the original)
Some original strategies that had good core concepts but are in the negative at the moment have shown profit in their updated strategies. The new expanded database has more minor leagues where more value can be found since the bookmaker has less knowledge and experience. The core ideas of these strategies may do better with the expanded league choice. Here are a list of some strategies that are already beating their original strategy versions.
List of All Other Original and Updated Strategies
RatingBet TypeOriginal StrategyUpdated StrategyCore Idea4HomeALL LEAGUES Home Team bad streak / TODAS las LIGAS Equipo Local mala rachaALL LEAGUES Home Team bad streak / TODAS las LIGAS Equipo Local mala racha (Updated 2021-10-20)A home underdog with few recent home wins meets a poor away team.2DrawBig vs Good – Top LeaguesBig vs Good – All LeaguesExploiting the bias against draws between two equally strong teams, in particular two top-tier teams.2UnderdogBraveheartBraveheart (Updated 2021-11-07)Backs the underdog in games where neither team won their last game and goals are expected.2HomeNo pain, no gainNo pain, no gain (Updated 2021-10-26)A poor home team versus an average away team.2HomeFailing to plan is planning to failFailing to plan is planning to fail (Updated 2021-10-26)Backing home teams with odds over evens and goals expected. Neither teams drew their last game.0HomeFailing to plan is planning to fail v22HomeALL LEAGUES Home Team Not scoring / TODAS las LIGAS Equipo Local SIN marcar
ALL LEAGUES Home Team Not scoring / TODAS las LIGAS Equipo Local SIN marcar (Updated 2021-10-20)A home underdog that did not score in their last game(s) faces an away team that conceded in their last game(s). The recent form is enough to entice the public market to back the draw or away win which drives the home price up into value.1UnderdogColossus 08 Underestimated Underdog (Updated 2020-07-04)Underestimated Underdog 30 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields
This strategy backs the underdog in a game where both teams have good season form. The statistics suggest they have a chance.1HomeEB Extra Bets Trigger – Home DominatorsEB Extra Bets Trigger – Home Dominators by form 32 of 111 leagues 4%+ leaguesThese picks are meant to be used together with the BSG bot set in the BF Bot Manager as triggers to place pre-match and in-play bets depending on the in-play stats. Or if you bet manually, then follow the matches in-play and place extra bets on the home team each 10 minute mark if the in-play stats look good.0UnderdogPro8 Underestimated Underdog v2Pro8 Underestimated Underdog v2 (Updated 2021-11-17)This strategy filters in teams that both have similar form in terms of percent average wins, but the odds rate one team as more likely to win. This often ends up as an away bet where the home team is higher up in the table or a home bet when a mid-table team comes up against a higher ranked visitor. (RP8 TP2 4%+ yield leagues selected)0AwayColossus 20 Away Dog (Updated 2020-07-04)Colossus 20 Away Dog (Updated 2021-11-17)Sometimes the price on the underdog that has not won for a while away from home is higher than its true probability due to lack of backers. This creates an opportunity over the long term for value bets.0HomeColossus 16 Home Leagues (Updated 2020-07-04)Colossus 16 Home Leagues (Updated 2021-11-17)For some leagues, the bookmaker has not got their model right and simply backing all home teams has made profit historically.0AwayColossus 09 Goals Galore Away Underdog (Updated 2020-07-04)Colossus 09 Goals Galore Away Underdog (Updated 2021-11-17)Back the away team in a match with no favourite and where over 2.5 goals are expected. The idea here is that when there is no clear favourite, in this case defined as no favourite below 2.5 in the odds, and 3 or more goals are odds on, then we can imagine that this game could go either way. The away side is obviously decent enough to stop the home side being named favourites, so it has a chance of winning.0DrawColossus 17 Dog Draw (Updated 2020-07-04)Colossus 17 Dog Draw (Updated 2021-11-17)When the underdog is not too highly priced we can imagine it is in with a fighting chance and there could be a draw.0AwayPro2 Goals Galore Away V2 (Updated 2020-07-15)Pro2 Goals Galore Away V2 (Updated 2021-11-17)Back the away team in a match with no favourite and where over 2.5 goals are expected.0HomePro5 Undefeated Home DogPro5 Undefeated Home Dog (Updated 2021-11-17)In this strategy we are backing home underdogs that have not lost their last home game or even the last two home games.0DC12Double Chance (12) avg teams low % drawsDouble Chance (12) avg teams low % draws v2.0
Double Chance (12) avg teams with low percentage of draws in their games.0DC1XDouble Chance Home Team bad runDouble Chance Home Team bad run (Updated 2021-10-26)Double Chance Home Team bad run vs Away Team good run0FavouriteGoals & favorite teamsGoals & favorite teams (Updated 2021-10-26)Back the favourite (excluding very strong favs) in games with high goal expectations.0FavouriteGoals & favorite teams v20AwayHigh risk / High rewardHigh risk / high reward (Updated 2021-11-05)Backing away teams with a poor away record in matches they are not rank outsiders in.0HomeIn LOVE with LOW ODDSIn LOVE with LOW ODDS (Updated 2021-10-26)Back the odds on home team when they won their last game against an away team that lost their last game.0DC12No draws poor shape home teamNo draws poor shape home team v2.0Backing a winner in a game with a home team in poor form.0FavouriteOdds value for favorite teamOdds value for favorite team (Updated 2021-10-26)Back the weak favourite when the home team have lost a few recently and the away team didn’t win their last one.
Have you updated your private strategies yet?
If you have private strategies of your own, we really do recommend that you create updated versions of them using the expanded 111 league database. This increases the data available to prove the trend you were following. It also gives you a chance to take advantage of smaller leagues that the public market is not wise to and the odds may have more value in them. Big data works better the more data you have.
Check out the updated version of the top ranking strategies
In this article we have listed the updated versions of the top ranking strategies. Over time, the new versions will likely rise to the top of the Betaminic ranking list, you can wait for that or you can switch over to following them sooner and take advantage of the expanded league database right now.
Finally, a big, big thank you to all our users who not only updated their strategies but were also kind enough to share them on the public strategies page. The public strategies are a great place to share ideas, get inspired and eventually the strongest trends will rise to the top and help everyone. We hope you continue to have success with them.
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